Global| Aug 30 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Remains Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Despite a late-month improvement, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during August fell sharply to 82.1 from an unrevised 85.1 in July. The mid-month reading of sentiment was 80.0. The level of sentiment [...]
Despite a late-month improvement, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during August fell sharply to 82.1 from an unrevised 85.1 in July. The mid-month reading of sentiment was 80.0. The level of sentiment this month is 10.5% higher than last year. Consensus expectations had been for less of a monthly drop to 81.0. The latest level of sentiment was the lowest since April but still was up sharply versus its August 2011 low of 55.8. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month's fall in overall sentiment reflected declines in both of the major component series. The August reading of current economic conditions fell to 95.2 (+7.3% y/y) from 98.6 in July. Accompanying that decline, the consumer expectations figure dropped to 73.7 (+13.2% y/y) this month from 76.5 in July.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Does the Economy Need More Spending Now? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 82.1 | 85.1 | 84.1 | 74.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 95.2 | 98.6 | 93.8 | 88.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 73.7 | 76.5 | 77.8 | 65.1 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
