Global| Sep 01 2006U.S. Consumer Sentiment Firmed in Late August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment in late August firmed enough to limit the m/m decline for the full month to 3.2%, according to the University of Michigan. The full month reading of 82.0 compared favorably to Consensus expectations for a decline to [...]
Consumer sentiment in late August firmed enough to limit the m/m decline for the full month to 3.2%, according to the University of Michigan. The full month reading of 82.0 compared favorably to Consensus expectations for a decline to 79.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending and during those ten years sentiment has a 68% correlation with the change in nonfarm payrolls.
Expectations for the economy slipped 6.2% m/m. Expected 12 month business conditions and the expected change in personal finances fell sharply to the lowest levels since November.
The reading of current economic conditions rose modestly m/m by 0.3%. The current read of personal finances slipped but perceived buying conditions for large household goods rose.
Consumers' opinion about gov't economic policy was unchanged m/m (-3.5% y/y) after sharp improvement during July. Expected inflation during the next year surged m/m to 4.6%, its highest level since May. The five to ten year expected rate of inflation also rose to 3.5%, its highest since May.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | August (Final) | August (Prelim) | July | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 82.0 | 78.7 | 84.7 | -8.0% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
| Current Conditions | 103.8 | 100.8 | 103.5 | -4.1% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
| Expectations | 68.0 | 64.5 | 72.5 | -11.6% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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