Global| Feb 21 2013U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Held Back By Lower Energy Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During January, the consumer price index was unchanged (1.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Expectations were for a 0.1% uptick. However, elsewhere there was newfound strength in pricing power. Prices excluding food and energy [...]
During January, the consumer price index was unchanged (1.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Expectations were for a 0.1% uptick. However, elsewhere there was newfound strength in pricing power. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y), the strongest increase since May 2011. It compared with consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise.
Energy prices continued downward by 1.7% (-1.0% y/y) in January. The decline was led by a 3.0% drop (-1.5% y/y) in gasoline prices (which have moved back up this month). Higher electricity prices offset the gas price decline with a 1.1% jump (0.5% y/y) while fuel oil prices rose 0.7% (-1.9% y/y). Food prices were unchanged (1.6% y/y). That reflected no change (1.2% y/y) in prices of meats, poultry, fish and eggs but a 0.3% increase (2.9% y/y) in fresh fruit & vegetables. Cereal prices fell 0.5% (-1.2% y/y).
Core services prices led an improvement in pricing power elsewhere with a 0.3% gain (2.5% y/y). A 0.8% rise (3.6% y/y) in public transportation costs led the advance. Higher tuition costs followed with a 0.6% rise (3.9% y/y). Transportation services, including vehicle insurance and maintenance, increased 0.5% (3.0% y/y). Recreation service prices rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) while medical care service prices gained 0.2% (3.6% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) increased 0.2% (2.2% y/y). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (2.1% y/y).
Goods price inflation less food and energy improved. The 0.2% January rise (0.4% y/y) followed six consecutive months of zero or negative change. Apparel prices led the gain with a 0.8% rise (2.1% y/y). That was followed by educational book prices which rose 0.7% (7.1% y/y). Appliance prices gained 0.4% (0.7% y/y) but furniture & bedding prices fell 0.6% (down 0.6% y/y). Recreational goods prices increased 0.3% (-1.9% y/y) while new vehicle prices ticked up 0.1% (0.5% y/y). Information technology product prices fell 0.5% (-7.6% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index(%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | -1.7 | -0.8 | -3.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
