Global| Sep 30 2014U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence declined to 86.0 this month (+7.2% y/y) from 93.4 during August, revised from 92.4. The latest figure was the lowest since May and fell short of expectations for [...]
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence declined to 86.0 this month (+7.2% y/y) from 93.4 during August, revised from 92.4. The latest figure was the lowest since May and fell short of expectations for 92.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The present situation figure moved 4.8% lower m/m (+21.6% y/y) to 89.4 from a revised 93.9, initially reported as 94.6. That was accompanied by a 10.1% m/m decline (-1.2% y/y) in the expectations reading to 83.7 from 93.1, revised from 90.9.
Business conditions were rated as good by a stable 23.4% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a steady 30.1% of respondents, nearly the expansion low. A greatly lessened 15.2% thought there would be more jobs in six months, the least since May, and a lessened 18.6% thought business conditions would be better in six months. To the upside, a greatly improved 51.3% of respondents were going to buy a major appliance but an easier 4.3% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months slipped to 5.4%.
By age group, confidence deteriorated greatly for those under age 35 years old to the lowest level since January. For those aged 35-54 years old as well as those over 55, confidence also fell to the lowest level in three months.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 86.0 | 93.4 | 90.3 | 7.2 | 73.2 | 67.1 | 58.1 |
| Present Situation | 89.4 | 93.9 | 87.9 | 21.6 | 67.6 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
| Expectations | 83.7 | 93.1 | 91.9 | -1.2 | 77.0 | 78.6 | 72.8 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 100.1 | 110.4 | 104.8 | -8.5 | 93.1 | 86.5 | 77.3 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 94.9 | 100.5 | 98.8 | 8.6 | 76.8 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 72.5 | 80.7 | 75.9 | 15.3 | 61.2 | 56.7 | 47.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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