Global| Jun 30 2015U.S. Consumer Confidence Nears Expansion High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 7.2% this month to 101.4 from 94.6 during May, revised from 95.4. It was the second firmest reading during the economic expansion and stronger than forecasts for 96.8 in the [...]
Tom Moeller June 30, 2015
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 7.2% this month to 101.4 from 94.6 during May, revised from 95.4. It was the second firmest reading during the economic expansion and stronger than forecasts for 96.8 in the Action Economics Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The consumer expectations component improved 9.7% to 94.6 (9.5% y/y) and attained the highest level in three months. The present situations figure gained 4.2% to 111.6 (29.3% y/y), the highest level in four months.
The percentage indicating that business conditions
would get better rose to 18.5%, the highest level since January. Eighteen
percent of respondents thought there would be more jobs, the most since last
August. The expected inflation rate ticked up to 5.1%, its highest level in
three months and 5.9% planned to buy a home, the most since November. Moving the
other way, 46.5% planned to purchase a major appliance, the fewest since
January.
Respondents indicating that current business conditions were good rose to the
highest level in three months. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a reduced
25.7% of respondents, just above the recovery low of 24.6%. Jobs were viewed as
not so plentiful by 52.9% of respondents, down from the high of 55.5 six months
ago. Confidence rose in the two older age groups. Those over age 55 logged a 10.5%
improvement, 22.9% y/y. Respondents between the ages of 35 to 54 raised
confidence by 5.4% (15.7% y/y). In the younger age bracket 1.0% fewer
respondents (+10.0% y/y) were confident. The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database.
The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA. The Simulative Effect of Redistribution from the Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco can be found here http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/june/income-redistribution-policy-economic-stimulus/
Conference Board (SA,
1985=100)
Jun
May
Apr
Y/Y %
2014
2013
2012
Consumer Confidence Index
101.4
94.6
94.3
17.4
86.9
73.2
67.1
Present Situation
111.6
107.1
105.1
29.3
87.3
67.6
49.8
Expectations
94.6
86.2
87.1
9.5
86.6
77.0
78.6
Consumer Confidence By Age Group
Under 35 Years
116.1
117.3
115.1
10.0
106.6
93.1
86.5
Aged 35-54 Years
105.5
100.1
96.2
15.7
92.4
76.8
68.5
Over 55 Years
90.3
81.7
80.7
22.9
73.8
61.2
56.7
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Remains Below Break-Even
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2015
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their June Business Barometer Index improved to 49.4 during June following an unrevised decline to 46.2 in May. It was fourth month in the last five below 50, the break-even point between rising and falling activity. It disappointed expectations for 50.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure deteriorated to 48.5, the third month below 50 this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
Deterioration in the component series was all-inclusive this month. The production series returned to nearly its lowest level of the recovery, as did the employment reading. During the last ten years, there has been an 82% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change factory sector employment. The new orders figure fell below break-even as did vendor delivery speeds which indicated the quickest delivery speeds in just over two years. Inventories accumulated at a slightly slower rate.
The index of prices paid recovered to the highest point this year. A slightly higher 16 percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices but a sharply lower 10 percent reporting paying less, the least since December.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 48.5 | 48.8 | 53.6 | 60.5 | 59.4 | 54.3 | 54.8 |
| General Business Barometer | 49.4 | 46.2 | 52.3 | 63.5 | 60.7 | 56.0 | 54.7 |
| Production | 49.8 | 45.8 | 52.7 | 69.6 | 64.5 | 58.2 | 57.6 |
| New Orders | 51.7 | 47.5 | 55.1 | 66.0 | 63.8 | 59.0 | 55.2 |
| Order Backlogs | 41.0 | 47.3 | 48.5 | 56.7 | 54.2 | 48.8 | 48.1 |
| Inventories | 46.9 | 53.3 | 54.2 | 56.4 | 56.0 | 45.7 | 51.4 |
| Employment | 45.7 | 48.0 | 54.0 | 57.1 | 56.1 | 55.5 | 55.4 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 48.5 | 49.5 | 51.9 | 53.6 | 56.5 | 52.5 | 54.8 |
| Prices Paid | 53.3 | 51.2 | 43.1 | 64.5 | 61.0 | 59.8 | 62.3 |
U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Up From January Low
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2015
Gasoline prices eased last week to an average $2.80 per gallon at the pump (-24.4% y/y) but remained higher than the low of $2.04 late in January. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price moved 2 cents higher to $2.71 per gallon. They remained, however, below the cost at the pump since prices typically are stronger during the summer driving season. Spot market gasoline prices held w/w at $2.10 per gallon (-28.9% y/y).
WTI crude oil costs firmed to an average $60.13 per barrel (-43.6% y/y), up versus the March low of $44.39. Yesterday, prices eased to $58.33 per barrel. These prices compare to a June 2014 high of $107.95. The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver Analytics, improved last week to $58.88 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices were fairly stable at $60.84 per barrel but fell to $59.03 yesterday.
Natural gas prices fell to $2.79 per mmbtu last week (-38.0% y/y) and were $2.80 yesterday.
Gasoline demand improved 4.5% y/y and demand for all petroleum products rose 7.2% y/y. Gasoline inventories grew 1.6% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 7.2% y/y.The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 06/29/15 | 06/22/15 | 06/15/15 | Y/Y% | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.80 | 2.81 | 2.84 | -24.4 | 2.30 | 3.33 | 3.30 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 60.13 | 59.89 | 60.07 | -43.6 | 93.64 | 97.96 | 94.20 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.79 | 2.88 | 2.81 | -38.0 | 4.37 | 3.73 | 2.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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