Global| Nov 26 2008U.S. Claims For Unemployment Insurance Ticked Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The rise in initial claims for jobless insurance took a breather last week. The 14,000 decline to 529,000 was the first material weekly fall in over one month. Yet despite the decline, initial claims for the month remained 10.7% [...]
The rise in initial claims for jobless insurance took a breather last week. The 14,000 decline to 529,000 was the first material weekly fall in over one month. Yet despite the decline, initial claims for the month remained 10.7% higher than they were in October.
Expectations had been for claims last week of 533,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to this cycle's high of 518,500 (54.2% y/y).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 15 were in Illinois (+5,285), Michigan (+2,697), Wisconsin (+1,551), Indiana (+1,549), and Missouri (+1,487), while the largest decreases were in California (-9,436), Tennessee (-4,566), North Carolina (-4,512), New Jersey (-3,729), and Florida (-2,686).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week of November 8 fell 54,000 and that reversed about half of the prior week's increase. The four-week average of continuing claims nevertheless rose to 3,929,000, this cycle's high and the highest since 1982. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at this cycle's high of 3.0%. The Commerce Department indicated that the highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Nov. 8 were in Puerto Rico (5.0 percent), Oregon (4.2), Michigan (3.8), Nevada (3.8), South Carolina (3.6), New Jersey (3.5), Pennsylvania (3.5), Alaska (3.4), Arkansas (3.4), and California (3.4).
Sectoral Reallocation and Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/22/08 | 11/15/08 | 11/08/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 529 | 543 | 516 | 51.6% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,962 | 4,016 | 49.0% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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