Global| Nov 27 2012U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Y/Y Momentum Picks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Not only are housing prices rising, but the rate of increase is firming. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y) during September, the same as in August. The y/y gain of 3.0% was the fastest [...]
Not only are housing prices rising, but the rate of increase is firming. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y) during September, the same as in August. The y/y gain of 3.0% was the fastest rate of increase since early 2010 and followed last year's 3.9% drop. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index increased 0.3% (2.1% y/y), the eighth rise in as many months.
Prices improved m/m during September across the country, notably in Atlanta, San Diego, Phoenix, Los Vegas, Dallas, Denver, Minneapolis and San Francisco. The strongest y/y price momentum was logged in Phoenix, Minneapolis, Detroit, Miami and San Francisco. Continuing lower y/y were prices in New York and Chicago.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is a three-month moving average and is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.
Housing Rebounds, but Forward-Looking Indicators Cause Concern from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.0% | -3.9 | 1.3 | -13.3 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -7.0 | -2.4 | -11.6 |
| Boston | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.9 | -2.0 | 1.9 | -4.9 |
| Chicago | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -6.8 | -3.7 | -14.2 |
| Cleveland | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.5 | -4.3 | 0.7 | -4.8 |
| Dallas | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 0.1 | -2.3 |
| Denver | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.7 | -2.1 | 0.9 | -2.8 |
| Detroit | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | -3.4 | -21.3 |
| Las Vegas | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | -6.5 | -7.7 | -29.8 |
| Los Angeles | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | -3.4 | 5.3 | -15.4 |
| Miami | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 7.4 | -4.9 | -2.1 | -22.0 |
| Minneapolis | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 8.8 | -8.2 | 3.2 | -15.7 |
| New York | 0.3 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -2.3 | -3.1 | -1.5 | -9.8 |
| Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 20.4 | -7.3 | -0.3 | -28.0 |
| Portland | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.7 | -7.2 | -3.2 | -12.8 |
| San Diego | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 4.2 | -4.4 | 7.3 | -13.3 |
| San Francisco | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.4 | -4.9 | 9.3 | -18.4 |
| Seattle | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 4.8 | -6.6 | -3.6 | -14.3 |
| Tampa | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.0 | -6.6 | -4.0 | -18.8 |
| Washington, D.C. | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | -0.4 | 4.7 | -10.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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