Global| Feb 14 2018U.S. Business Inventories & Sales Rise Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in December (3.2% y/y), the same as during their unrevised November reading. Total business sales gained 0.6% (6.7% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, revised from 1.2%. The changes in inventories and [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in December (3.2% y/y), the same as during their unrevised November reading. Total business sales gained 0.6% (6.7% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, revised from 1.2%. The changes in inventories and sales left the inventory/sales ratio steady at 1.33, the lowest level since November 2014.
Retail inventories increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y), the same as during November. Auto inventories fell 0.4% (+2.5% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Nonauto retail inventories improved 0.5% (2.1% y/y) after two months of 0.4% increase. Grocery store inventories increased 1.0% (4.1% y/y) after a similar increase in November. Building materials inventories rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Clothing store inventories gained 0.5% (-1.2% y/y) after eight consecutive months of decumulation while general merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after four months of little change. Furniture store inventories increased 1.7% (3.2% y/y) following two months of decline. As reported last week, wholesale inventories increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) in December following a 0.6% rise. Also reported earlier, factory sector inventories strengthened 0.5% (3.8% y/y) for the second straight month.
Retail sales eased 0.1% (+5.3% y/y) following a 0.8% gain, while nonauto sales also dipped 0.1% (+6.2% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Wholesale sector sales strengthened 1.2% (9.1% y/y) after a 1.9% rise, as shipments from the factory sector increased 0.6% (5.6% y/y), strong for the fifth straight month.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector rose to 1.43. That left the ratio at its lowest point, however, in three years, down sharply from the 1.49 August high. The nonauto I/S ratio also ticked up to 1.21, but remained near its lowest level since early-2012. The wholesale sector I/S ratio eased to 1.22, the lowest point in three years. In the manufacturing sector, the I/S ratio held steady at 1.35, also its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Retail | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | -0.1 | -3.2 |
| Retail | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 9.1 | 8.1 | -0.6 | -4.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | -2.0 | -5.8 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Retail | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.23j | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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