Global| Dec 13 2019U.S. Business Inventories Rise While Sales Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October following a 0.1% September dip, revised from 0.0%. Total business sales eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.4% September decline, revised from -0.2%. The inventory- [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October following a 0.1% September dip, revised from 0.0%. Total business sales eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.4% September decline, revised from -0.2%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the sixth consecutive month.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) in October after a 0.1% uptick. Auto inventories declined 1.3% both m/m and y/y while nonauto inventories strengthened 0.7% (2.8% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings increased 1.8% (-3.5% y/y) following several months of decline. Clothing inventories eased 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 0.5%. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise while department store inventories eased 0.2% (-7.4% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in October after falling 0.7%. Factory sector inventories improved 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Retail sales increased 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in October and mostly reversed the September decline. Sales excluding autos rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) and also reversed September's fall. Wholesale sector sales fell 0.7% (-1.4% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while shipments from the factory sector held steady (-1.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45, but has been mostly falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio also held steady at 1.19, and nearly matched its all-time low. The wholesale I/S ratio rose to 1.37 from 1.36 while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.40.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Retail | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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