Global| Oct 20 2014U.S. Business Economists Survey Shows Easing Economic Conditions
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association for Business Economics reported in its Survey of Business Conditions that the unit demand figure declined to 42.3 last quarter from 52.4 in Q2. These data are diffusion indexes measuring the net position of [...]
The National Association for Business Economics reported in its Survey of Business Conditions that the unit demand figure declined to 42.3 last quarter from 52.4 in Q2. These data are diffusion indexes measuring the net position of the surveyed series. Unit demand remained well ahead of 2012 & 2013 but was slightly below recent highs. This also holds true for the employment, capital spending and profit margin series.
On the pricing front, conditions also softened. The net rising index for materials costs of 16.0 was half the 2010 level of 31.3, which had rebounded after the recession. It remained well below the 2011 reading of 42.4. The prices charged figures, however, remained firm, up sharply from 2012 and just short of the 2011 high. The wages & salaries reading of 20.9 was down sharply from Q2 but only slightly below 2011 & 2012.
The figures are composite indexes which subtract the falling percentage from the rising percentage of respondents.
These NABE Business Conditions Survey Figures can be found in Haver' SURVEYS Database.
| National Association for Business Economics - Business Conditions Survey | Q3'14 | Q2'14 | Q1'14 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Rising Index Over Last Three Months | ||||||
| Unit Demand | 42.3 | 52.4 | 44.4 | 37.4 | 30.6 | 40.0 |
| Employment | 24.7 | 31.3 | 18.1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 26.9 |
| Capital Spending | 29.7 | 35.1 | 32.3 | 19.6 | 16.1 | 32.5 |
| Materials Costs | 16.0 | 27.4 | 27.3 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 42.4 |
| Prices Charged | 16.9 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 15.1 | 8.4 | 22.0 |
| Profit Margins | 15.7 | 19.0 | 24.2 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 16.3 |
| Wages & Salaries | 20.9 | 43.0 | 32.4 | 17.6 | 24.3 | 24.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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