Global| Feb 01 2017U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment increased 246,000 (1.8% y/y) during January following a 151,000 December gain, revised from 153,000. The increase compared to expectations [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment increased 246,000 (1.8% y/y) during January following a 151,000 December gain, revised from 153,000. The increase compared to expectations for a 160,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 62,000 (1.5% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 102,000 (1.6% y/y), the firmest increase since June. Large-sized businesses posted a fairly stable 83,000 increase in jobs (2.7% y/y).
Service-producing payrolls increased 201,000 (2.1% y/y) after a 147,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 71,000 (3.0% y/y), the strongest gain in six months. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 63,000 (1.7% y/y). Education & health services employment gained 47,000 (2.5% y/y). Hiring in the leisure & hospitality sector increased 17,000 (2.2% y/y). Financial sector payrolls did not rise m/m (1.0% y/y), the weakest result since October 2013.
Goods-producing employment strengthened 46,000, but was unchanged y/y. Construction industry employment increased 25,000 (1.4% y/y) following little growth during Q4'16. Hiring in the factory sector rose 15,000 (-0.2% y/y), the strongest increase since December 2014.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 246 | 151 | 226 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 62 | 11 | 49 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 102 | 68 | 94 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 83 | 71 | 84 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Goods-Producing | 46 | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Construction | 25 | 4 | 12 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Manufacturing | 15 | 3 | -9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Service-Producing | 201 | 147 | 223 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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