Global| Nov 05 2014U.S. ADP Employment Increase Is Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that hiring continued last month at a moderate rate. Private sector employment grew 230,000 during October following a 225,000 September increase, revised from 213,000. The y/y [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that hiring continued last month at a moderate rate. Private sector employment grew 230,000 during October following a 225,000 September increase, revised from 213,000. The y/y increase of 2.2% has been steady since the middle of 2012. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 220,000 rise.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Hiring in the goods-producing sector increased 48,000 (2.2% y/y) following a strong 50,000 rise. Factory sector payrolls grew 15,000 as the 1.1% y/y rise maintained the strongest pace since early last year. Construction industry jobs increased 28,000 (3.9% y/y), the firmest rise since June.
Service-providing payrolls grew 181,000 (2.2% y/y), roughly steady with the increases since late-2011. Industry growth varied. Professional & business services jobs grew 53,000 (3.4% y/y) following a 59,000 rise. Trade, transportation and utilities added 47,000 jobs (1.9%), the strongest gain in three months. Financial activities jobs increased 4,000 (0.9% y/y), the weakest growth since February.
Small businesses' payrolls rose 102,000 in October (2.2% y/y), the largest gain since June. Medium-sized firms added 122,000 (2.1% y/y), the strongest rise of the economic recovery. Large-size company payroll growth was minimal. The 5,000 worker improvement (2.2% y/y) was the weakest since a decline during January of last year.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 230 | 225 | 162 | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 102 | 93 | 63 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 122 | 47 | 59 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 5 | 85 | 40 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 48 | 50 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | 15 | 33 | 17 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 181 | 176 | 132 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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