Global| Dec 23 2005Rise in U.S. Durable Goods Orders All Air(craft)
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders for nondefense aircraft more than doubled m/m last month (158.6% y/y) and combined with a 51.6% surge in October to lift durable goods orders 4.4% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% November rise. Less the volatile [...]
Orders for nondefense aircraft more than doubled m/m last month (158.6% y/y) and combined with a 51.6% surge in October to lift durable goods orders 4.4% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% November rise.
Less the volatile transportation sector, durable goods orders fell 0.6% for the third consecutive monthly decline.
Declines in orders last month were widespread across industries. Machinery orders, which had been strong, fell 1.6% (+12.7% y/y). Orders for communications equipment also fell 4.4% (+8.6% y/y) as did orders for motor vehicles & parts which fell 5.7% (-2.1% y/y). Finally, fabricated metals orders fell 2.4% (+1.4%), down for the second consecutive month.
To the upside, orders for computers & related products rose 5.3% (11.6% y/y) and primary metals orders increased 1.4% (11.4% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods rose 19.6% due to the surge in aircraft orders which continued to benefit from the end of the Boeing strike in September. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% and have been erratically moving sideways since the Spring.
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.2% (6.3% y/y) in November following a 1.2% October increase. Less the transportation sector, shipments fell slightly (6.7% y/y) after a 1.0% October jump.
Order backlogs jumped 3.1% (13.9% y/y), again reflecting the rebound in aircraft. Less transportation backlogs rose a more moderate 0.7% (9.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to its highest level since early 2002.
Durable inventories rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after a like gain October. The I/S ratio for durable goods increased modestly m/m but remained below the highs of earlier this year.
| NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 4.4% | 3.0% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
| Excluding Transportation | -0.6% | -0.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 19.6% | 6.7% | 31.4% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
| Excluding Aircraft | -2.0% | 1.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
