Global| May 10 2002Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices fell vs. Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain. It was the first decline since last December. Core finished goods prices rose an expected 0.1% (-0.2% YTD, AR) Food prices fell a surprising 3.2%, a drop [...]
Finished producer prices fell vs. Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain. It was the first decline since last December. Core finished goods prices rose an expected 0.1% (-0.2% YTD, AR)
Food prices fell a surprising 3.2%, a drop surpassed only by a 3.3% decline in June 1974. Price declines amongst most food items were large.
Energy prices continued their upward trend rising 2.5% following a 5.5% spurt in March. Market gasoline prices in early May are down slightly from April.
Core finished consumer goods prices rose 0.3% (0.2% YTD), the strongest gain since December. Core nondurable goods prices rose 0.7% (1.2% YTD) but durable goods prices fell 0.2%, the third decline this year. Capital goods prices dropped 0.1% (-0.6% YTD).
Intermediate goods prices were strong for the second month due to higher energy prices, up 4.4%. Core intermediate prices also were strong.
Crude goods prices rose, reflecting a 22.4% pop in energy prices which followed a 15.2% March gain. Core crude prices also were strong in part reflecting higher metals prices.
| Producer Price Index | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.2% | 1.0% | -2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.9% | 1.0% | -2.4% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | 0.2% | 0.3% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | 5.5% | 4.0% | -18.9% | 0.3% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 3.6% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -9.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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