Global| Jan 11 2002Producer Prices Fall Third Month in a Row
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices fell more than expected last month. A 0.2% decline was the consensus expectation. While energy prices fell more than expected, the 0.1% decline in core prices was unexpected. Core finished consumer goods [...]
Finished producer prices fell more than expected last month. A 0.2% decline was the consensus expectation. While energy prices fell more than expected, the 0.1% decline in core prices was unexpected.
Core finished consumer goods prices fell for the second month in three, up 1.3% y/y. That reflected no change in tobacco prices following a November surge.
Passenger car prices collapsed 1.0% following a surprising 0.8% November rise. Price increases for other consumer durables were tame.
Capital equipment prices fell slightly, reflecting continued deflation of computer prices (-30.9% y/y).
Gasoline prices fell 15.5%, the third double-digit monthly decline in a row. Residential natural gas prices fell for the eleventh consecutive month (-23.2% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices fell for the ninth month of 2001. Core intermediate prices fell during eight months last year.
Crude goods prices collapsed, reversing their November spike. The decline wholly reflected lower energy prices as commodity (core crude) prices firmed slightly.
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| · Finished producer prices fell more than expected last month. A 0.2% decline was the consensus expectation. While energy prices fell more than expected, the 0.1% decline in core prices was unexpected. · Core finished consumer goods prices fell for the second month in three, up 1.3% y/y. That reflected no change in tobacco prices following a November surge. · Passenger car prices collapsed 1.0% following a surprising 0.8% November rise. Price increases for other consumer durables were tame. · Capital equipment prices fell slightly, reflecting continued deflation of computer prices (-30.9% y/y). · Gasoline prices fell 15.5%, the third double-digit monthly decline in a row. Residential natural gas prices fell for the eleventh consecutive month (-23.2% y/y). · Intermediate goods prices fell for the ninth month of 2001. Core intermediate prices fell during eight months last year. · Crude goods prices collapsed, reversing their November spike. The decline wholly reflected lower energy prices as commodity (core crude) prices firmed slightly. |
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| Producer Price Index | Dec '01 | Nov '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.7% | -0.6% | -1.9% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.9% | -0.5% | -4.0% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.6% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | -9.5% | 7.3% | -32.3% | 0.5% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 0.1% | -0.8% | -10.0% | -10.0% | 7.4% | -4.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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