Global| Oct 19 2012Orders Struggle in France and Italy
Summary
Orders rose in August for both France and Italy. But growth rates continue to be challenged. For the moment France is keeping weakness away a bit better than is Italy. There are other differences too. For Italy domestic demand has [...]
Orders rose in August for both France and Italy. But growth rates continue to be challenged. For the moment France is keeping weakness away a bit better than is Italy.
There are other differences too. For Italy domestic demand has fallen off sharply and is down at a 13.5% annual rate over three months, flat over six months and off by 18% over 12-months. But Italy is still exploiting foreign demand which is up by a huge 38% annual rate over three months and 25% over six months but still up by just 2.7% Yr/Yr.
In France total orders are up by 2.1% over three months annualized, although foreign orders are off at an 8.7% annual rate.
Both Italy and France have orders at 86% of their respective cycle peak levels. And, for each, foreign orders are 95% or better compared to their cycle peaks. Domestic orders are comparatively weaker in each case.
On balance these orders data and even the recent export data are holding up better than some of the PMI indices would suggest. European nations, not just Italy and France are still finding an export outlet for their goods. But the sense of worsening in the industrial data is spreading across the board and relatively more concern has been aimed at France recently, although it fares pretty well in this report on orders.
On the other hand the UK and EU member but not in the single currency Zone has seen its economy fare better featuring some retail sales improvement.
This is still a transition time for the Zone and the decay in the periphery has been spreading but the full effects have yet to be felt.
| Italy Orders | QTR | % Peak | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR execept M/M | Aug-12 | Jul 12 | Jun 12 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-Mo | to-date | |
| Total | 0.7% | 2.9% | -2.2% | 5.3% | 9.7% | -10.2% | 1.8% | 86.4% |
| Foreign | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 38.3% | 25.2% | 2.7% | 24.4% | 94.9% |
| Domestic | -0.6% | 2.2% | -5.1% | -13.5% | 0.0% | -18.0% | -11.7% | 74.7% |
| Industrial Sales | 2.9% | 1.3% | -2.6% | 6.5% | 1.1% | -4.4% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| France Orders | % Peak | |||||||
| SAAR execept M/M | Aug-12 | Jul 12 | Jun 12 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-Mo | Q-3-D | |
| Total | 2.0% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | -1.6% | 8.5% | 86.6% |
| Foreign | 0.0% | 0.3% | -2.5% | -8.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | -3.9% | 97.8% |
| IP excl. Construction | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 13.2% | 5.0% | -0.4% | 25.6% | 92.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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