Global| Sep 07 2007OECD LEIs Show Upswing Has Topped Out…in July
Summary
The OECD leading indicator tells a solid story of business expansion past and future. The current reading is not quite what we would like, however. The rise in these indicators that came on a six month change basis - in March of [...]
The OECD leading indicator tells a solid story of business expansion past and future. The current reading is not quite what we would like, however. The rise in these indicators that came – on a six month change basis - in March of this year have been swept away by events. The Euro area index never had much of a pop. On reflection, it seems to be in a longer term declining mode. But it did have a bit of an uptick earlier this year. Japan has simply been and continues to be sickly. These indicators, that are forward-looking, may contrast with some of the things you have heard about the strength of the global expansion recently, even from our own Treasury Secretary. One of the things he has said is that he can’t image a really weak US economy with such a strong global economy. Guess what? That global economy isn’t so strong any more.
The US as always has the greatest amplitude on this chart. It has had the strongest rebound and now is beginning to back off. These data do not even draw from the period when financial turmoil reared up.
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| OECD | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| OECD7 | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% |
| OECD Europe | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% |
| OECD Japan | -0.8% | -0.4% | 0.0% | -4.5% | -2.7% | -1.8% |
| OECD US | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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