Global| Nov 27 2013November U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rebounds Slightly
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey rebounded slightly in the second half of November - to 75.1 from the early-November reading of 72.0 and October's 73.2. The market consensus had looked for a slightly [...]
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey rebounded slightly in the second half of November - to 75.1 from the early-November reading of 72.0 and October's 73.2. The market consensus had looked for a slightly smaller rise. Notwithstanding the modest rebound and apart from October, the November reading was the lowest since January.
The November rebound was due entirely to an increase in the expectations component as respondents' views on current conditions continued to deteriorate. The current conditions index fell to 88.0 in November, its lowest reading since January, while the expectations index rose more than 4 points to 66.8.
Sentiment of the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution continued to fall while sentiment of the top third rose for the first time in five months. By age, sentiment of 18-34 year olds fell to its lowest level since June 2012, and sentiment of 34-55 year olds fell to its lowest level since December 2011. In contrast, sentiment of those above 55 jumped nearly 5 points.
As always, please note that these data are not seasonally adjusted. They can be found in Haver's USECON and UMSCA databases.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 75.1 | 73.2 | 77.5 | 82.7 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 88.0 | 89.9 | 92.6 | 90.6 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 66.8 | 62.5 | 67.8 | 77.7 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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