Global| Jan 05 2015New York State Economic Conditions Improve as Pricing Power Is Erratic
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management reported that, for New York State, their December index of business conditions expected in six months increased to 72.9, the highest level since February. Improved expectations were forming [...]
The Institute for Supply Management reported that, for New York State, their December index of business conditions expected in six months increased to 72.9, the highest level since February. Improved expectations were forming throughout the year. The latest rise pulled the 2014 average up to 69.5, the highest reading since 2010. Improvement was accompanied by a strengthened reading for current economic conditions. This index surged to 70.8 last month from 62.4 in November. It was its highest level since October 2010 and capped a year of firmer business conditions. Last year's average rose to 59.7, the highest level since 2010.
Pricing power, however, was inconsistent during 2014. The December index of prices paid declined to a not seasonally adjusted 54.5 from 62.5. The reading was just above the low reached three months earlier. The annual average improved, however, to 61.2, the highest level of the economic recovery.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. A diffusion index reading of more than 50% denotes growth while a reading of under 50% implies a contraction.
| ISM New York (Diffusion Index) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'13 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) | 72.9 | 70.5 | 71.8 | 73.2 | 69.5 | 65.0 | 64.9 |
| Current Economic Conditions (SA) | 70.8 | 62.4 | 54.8 | 63.8 | 59.7 | 58.4 | 55.2 |
| Prices Paid (NSA) | 54.5 | 62.5 | 63.3 | 60.0 | 61.2 | 55.3 | 56.4 |
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Renew Positive Growth
by Tom Moeller January 5, 2015
Sales of light vehicles improved 5.6% y/y to 17.20 million units (SAAR). Purchases were up 4.5% versus October when they totaled 16.46 million, little-changed from the prior month.
Purchases of light trucks recovered 6.3% (9.6% y/y) to 9.03 million units following a 2.3% October fall. Sales of domestically-produced light trucks improved 6.5% (11.8% y/y) to 7.89 million units while imported light truck sales gained 5.2% (-3.4% y/y) to 1.13 million, recovering most of October's drop.
Auto sales improved 2.6% versus October (1.5% y/y) to 8.18 million units. The gain repeated October's rise. Sales of domestically-produced autos gained 3.4% (8.1% y/y) to 6.08 million while sales of imports were unchanged (-13.7% y/y) at 2.10 million.
The import share of light vehicle sales skidded to 18.8%, its lowest reading since January 2006. Import's share of the auto market fell to 25.7%, down from 34.8% during all of 2010, while the import share of the light truck market held roughly steady at 12.6%.
U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 17.20 | 16.46 | 5.6 | 15.56 | 14.49 | ||
| Autos | 8.18 | 7.97 | 1.5 | 7.77 | 7.42 | ||
| Domestic | 6.08 | 5.88 | 8.1 | 5.47 | 5.10 | ||
| Imported | 2.10 | 2.10 | -13.7 | 2.29 | 2.32 | ||
| Light Trucks | 9.03 | 8.49 | 9.6 | 7.79 | 7.08 | ||
| Domestic | 7.89 | 7.41 | 11.8 | 6.71 | 6.10 | ||
| Imported | 1.13 | 1.08 | -3.4 | 1.08 | 0.97 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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