Global| Jul 19 2010New NABE Survey Indicates Pace of Business Recovery Eases But Job Creation Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In their latest report, the Nat'l Association for Business Economics indicated that net industry demand increased during 2Q for the fourth consecutive quarter. There was a sign, however, of moderation in the rate of demand's expansion [...]
In their latest report, the Nat'l Association for Business Economics
indicated that net industry demand increased during 2Q for the fourth
consecutive quarter. There was a sign, however, of moderation in the rate of
demand's expansion as the net rising index fell to 42.0. The decline was due to
a slightly diminished 51.8 percent of firms indicating rising demand and an
increased 9.9% reporting the it fell. During the last ten years there has been a
71% correlation between the NABE unit demand index and the change in real final
sales to domestic purchasers.
Job creation nevertheless improved and the net rising index rose to 17.3. The improvement occurred as a higher 30.9% of firms reported a net-increase while a stable 13.6% reported a decrease in hiring.During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the NABE employment index and the q/q change in nonfarm payrolls.
Pricing also improved with the net-rising index at its highest since 3Q 2008. An improved 20.2% of respondents indicated that prices charged rose and a diminished number indicated lower prices.During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the NABE prices charged index and the q/q change in the CPI.
Also in the NABE report was an indication that capital spending plans improved to the highest level in two years while upward pressure on wages & salaries diminished somewhat. Profit margins also slipped as a diminished 24.7% of firms reported expansion but an increased 20.8% indicated a decline.
The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database and the latest from the National Association for Business Economics can be found here.
| Nat'l Association For Business Economics | Q2 | Q1 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit Demand; Net Rising Index | 42.0 | 51.5 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 22 |
| Employment; Net Rising Index | 17.3 | 8.8 | -22.2 | -3.4 | 16.6 |
| Capital Spending; Net Rising Index | 10.8 | 9.8 | -6.5 | 7.3 | 20.3 |
| Prices Charged; Net Rising Index | 13.9 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 16.8 | 21.7 |
| Profit Margins; Net Rising Index | 3.9 | 13.1 | -6.8 | -23.5 | 9.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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