Global| Mar 10 2010Manpower Survey Indicates Positive But Limited Jobs Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The employment agency Manpower Inc. indicated roughly stable corporate hiring intentions for the second quarter. Their seasonally adjusted reading of 5 compared to a 1Q figure of 6, but both were improved from the net-layoff readings [...]
The employment agency Manpower Inc. indicated roughly stable corporate hiring intentions for the second quarter. Their seasonally adjusted reading of 5 compared to a 1Q figure of 6, but both were improved from the net-layoff readings late during 2009. Those recession readings were the worst of the series' history which dates to 1976. Since 1990 there has been a 77% correlation between the Manpower Index and the three-month change in payroll employment.
Hiring intentions for 2Q improved in the relatively stable education & health, government, information, nondurable manufacturing and professional business service sectors, but sustained improvement in each versus last year was scattered. Intentions in the construction and durable manufacturing sectors continued to indicate net-layoffs though the layoffs in the latter sector diminished considerably.
The Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Survey is a quarterly measurement of hiring intentions of more than 15,000 employers in 473 cities. Employers declare their intentions to increase, decrease, or maintain the size of their present workforce for the upcoming three-month period. The survey was designed with the assistance of the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan. The current seasonal adjustments are by Manpower, Inc. Haver calculated the historical seasonally adjusted series.
The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. Manpower indicates that seasonally-adjusted industry data are under development.
Assessing the Impact of Education and Marriage on Labor Market Exit Decisions of Women from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Survey | 2Q '10 | 1Q '10 | 4Q '09 | 3Q '09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Industries Net Hiring Strength (SA) | 5 | 6 | -2 | -2 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| Increase (NSA) | 16 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 24 | 27 |
| Decrease (NSA) | 8 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| Construction | -12 | -10 | 2 | -4 | -5 | -- | -- |
| Education & Health | 4 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| Financial Activities | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -- | -- |
| Government | -3 | -8 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -- | -- |
| Information | 0 | -5 | -4 | -5 | -3 | -- | -- |
| Leisure & Hospitality | 4 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 13 | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing - Durable | -3 | -8 | -6 | -7 | -5 | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing - Nondurable | 1 | -3 | 0 | -4 | -2 | -- | -- |
| Professional Business Services | 5 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 | -- | -- |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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