Global| Jul 21 2005June Leading Indicators Up, Revisions Suggest Improved Prospects
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The June Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators reported by the Conference Board rose 0.9%. Revisions to the prior two months raised May to no change from a 0.5% decline reported initially and April to plus 0.2% from no [...]
The June Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators reported by the Conference Board rose 0.9%. Revisions to the prior two months raised May to no change from a 0.5% decline reported initially and April to plus 0.2% from no change. Six-month growth in the leaders improved to 0.6%.
The method of calculating the contribution to the index from the interest rate yield spread was revised. A negative contribution will now occur only when the spread inverts rather than when declining as in the past. More details could be found here.
Amongst the 10 components of the leading index the breadth of one month gain improved markedly to 80%, the highest since October 2003. In June, only a decline in new orders for nondefense capital goods made a negative contribution.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose by 0.2% (2.8% y/y), continuing the steady up trend in place since early 2003.
The June lagging indicators rose 0.3% and the prior month's gain was revised up to 0.4%.
Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Monetary Policy Report to the Congress from the US Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Business Cycle Indicators | June | May | 6-Month Chg | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Coincident | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% | -0.6% |
| Lagging | 0.3% | 0.4% | 5.8% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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