Global| Jul 01 2004Japanese Industry Improves Further in Q2
Summary
The Bank of Japan today released the TANKAN Survey for the second quarter, and once again, conditions came out better than forecast three months ago. The actual result for large manufacturing firms was, at +22, a full 10 points higher [...]
The Bank of Japan today released the TANKAN Survey for the second quarter, and once again, conditions came out better than forecast three months ago. The actual result for large manufacturing firms was, at +22, a full 10 points higher than the forecast of +12. Favorable readings were widespread across all parts of the survey, with every major sector showing improvement from March, even if just to a smaller negative reading. Most notably perhaps, "small" manufacturers shifted from negative to positive readings.
Among individual industries, iron and steel and machinery had substantial gains in the manufacturing sector for all three size categories of firms. There was more variation in non-manufacturing firms. Information services, business and personal services showed visible improvements at medium-size firms, but only modest gains at large companies. And the retailing industry actually deteriorated, in all size groups, weakening from the first quarter's result, missing the second quarter forecast and even dropping back into negative territory.
In the Haver databases, we present the TANKAN data two ways. Owing to the restructuring of the survey classification scheme and new sampling in March, we have segregated the recent detail data into new series in the "Japan" database. In summary data in the "G10" database, we link the all industry-all enterprise data with the history that uses the old methodology. This broad aggregate is less affected by the Bank of Japan's reorganization of the categories. By this special, linked measure, the actual result for the second quarter came in at zero, its first non-negative reading since 1997.
| Business Conditions: % Favorable minus % Unfavorable | June 2004 March 2004 December 2003||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Forecast for Sept | Actual | Forecast for June | Actual | Forecast for March | |
| All Firms | 0 | -1 | -5 | -6 | -11 | -12 |
| Large Firms* | 16 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Manufacturing | 22 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 6 |
| Non-manufacturing | 9 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| Medium-sized Firms** | 3 | 1 | -2 | -2 | -8 | -9 |
| Manufacturing | 11 | 7 | 5 | 1 | -3 | -4 |
| Non-manufacturing | -1 | -3 | -7 | -6 | -12 | -11 |
| Small Firms*** | -10 | -10 | -13 | -15 | -19 | -20 |
| Manufacturing | 2 | 2 | -3 | -3 | -10 | -11 |
| Non-manufacturing | -18 | -18 | -20 | -21 | -25 | -27 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
