Global| Oct 18 2010Japan's Tertiary Index Sinks
Summary
Japan's service sector (Tertiary index) dipped in August as we remain unclear if the herky-jerky recovery in services is still in force or not. The services sector is looking like it is in recovery and its Yr/Yr rise is respectably [...]
Japan's service sector (Tertiary index) dipped in August as we remain unclear if the herky-jerky recovery in services is
still in force or not. The services sector is looking like it is in recovery and its Yr/Yr rise is respectably strong.
Still, that rise still is from a base of activity that was depressed. Its 1.7% rise in August of 20101 is from a base in
2009 when the index was falling by 4% Yr/Yr. January of 2011 will be the strongest test for the tertiary index since then it
will have to post Yr-on-Yr gains from a month in which the index had risen a year before.
Even so the index level of the tertiary index stands in the top 40% of its historic values. Since this index climbs over time that standing is not a strong one. Even so, the strength of the year-on-year percentage rise puts the tertiary index in the top 30% of its all-time range, a more correct comparison and one in which it emerges as relatively stronger. Still a lot of that is owing to the easy comparison with the year before.
It may be that with the US about to embark on QE the yen is going to see the upward pressure on it abate. That would be a blessing for Japan. But Japan is still struggling. Since it is so linked into the world economy we will have to see a global recovery take hold in a better more solid way before we can breathe easy on Japan.
| Up To Date Japan Industry Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent Months | Moving Averages | Extremes; Range | |||||||
| Aug 2010 |
Jul 2010 |
Jun 2010 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Max | Min | %-Tile | |
| Mining and MFG | 94.3 | 94.8 | 95.0 | 94.7 | 95.2 | 92.3 | 110.1 | 71.4 | 59.2% |
| Tertiary | 98.7 | 98.9 | 97.3 | 98.3 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 103.5 | 90.8 | 62.2% |
| Ranges, Max, Min since 1993 | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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