Global| Apr 23 2008Italy’s Retail Sales Growth Remains Stunted
Summary
Italy’s retail sales rose by 0.3% in nominal terms in February. Nominal growth in retail sales shows some pick up as the overall three month growth rate has improved. But this is an inflation effect. When we deflate nominal retail [...]
Italy’s retail sales rose by 0.3% in nominal terms in
February. Nominal growth in retail sales shows some pick up as the
overall three month growth rate has improved. But this is an inflation
effect. When we deflate nominal retail sales buy Italy’s CPI we find
three month growth is still declining… albeit at a slower pace than in
come previous periods. Still, the current quarter (2008-Q1), with two
months worth of data in hand, shows real retail sales posting a decline
at a 2.8% annual rate. This compares to an actual Q4 rise in real
retail sales of +3.8%. in 2007 Q4. As you can see from the plotting of
real retail sales, Italy’s consumers have been challenged for quite
some time. While there is a minor abatement of the ongoing sales
deceleration in place, that seems to be in the context of a broader and
still declining overall trend. So we should take no consolation from
the current nominal retail sales pick up or even from the ‘upward hook’
formation on the growth chart for real retail sales as of February. It
has no fundamental basis.
| Italy Retail Sales Growth | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mo/mo % | At annual rates | |||||||
| Nominal | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr -Ago | Qtr-to-Date |
| Retail Trade | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 2.3% |
| Clothing & Furniture | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 4.9% |
| Total Real Retail | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -1.7% | -2.6% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -2.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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