Global| Oct 22 2008Italy’s Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales Trends Continue to Drop
Summary
Italy’s consumer sentiment trend and retail sales trends continue to show each other the way lower. While some speak disparagingly about consumer surveys, it is clear that the consumer’s habits are bang in line with what the consumer [...]
Italy’s consumer sentiment trend and retail sales trends
continue to show each other the way lower. While some speak
disparagingly about consumer surveys, it is clear that the consumer’s
habits are bang in line with what the consumer is telling various
surveyors.
In the quarter to date (two-months into Q3), nominal sales are
still rising. But on the more important inflation-adjusted basis sales
are dropping at a -3.4% annual rate - that’s quite weak.
Nominal sales trends have bee negative over three, six and
twelve month horizons. In August weakness seems to have hit all the
major categories together. While July showed a nominal sales gain, it
is now clear that it was not heralding a period of better growth ahead
That much has become clear in August.
Italy remains a trouble EMU economy, led by consumer sector
weakness.
| Italy Retail Sales Growth | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mo/mo % | At annual rates | |||||||
| Nominal | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Q-2-Date |
| Retail Trade | -0.5% | 0.6% | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.5% | -0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | -0.3% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% |
| Clothing&Furniture | -6.1% | 6.3% | -3.0% | -12.2% | -10.7% | -3.7% | -0.3% | 12.8% |
| Total Real Retail | -0.7% | 0.3% | -0.9% | -5.1% | -5.4% | -4.6% | -0.9% | -3.4% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retial Ex auto | -0.7% | 0.3% | -0.9% | -5.1% | -5.4% | -4.6% | -0.9% | |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
