Global| Jun 20 2012Italian and French Orders Go Different Ways
Summary
While there seems to be more anxiety about the Euro-Area it is far from clear what is going on. Orders trends for Italy and France are undergoing a major divergence. Orders for Italy in April are falling and are lower over three [...]
While there seems to be more anxiety about the Euro-Area it is far from clear what is going on. Orders trends for
Italy and France are undergoing a major divergence. Orders for Italy in April are falling and are lower over three
months while for France orders are stronger in April and are rising over three months. Yr/Yr Italy's orders are
falling while France's orders are rising. In the current quarter Italian orders are falling while France's orders
are rising. These are two countries whose orders metrics in the past have been close together; suddenly they
are opposite.
Of course Italy is caught up relatively more with the problems of debt and issues of the peripheral countries and this is weighing on growth. But it was only recently that Germany's Zew Index after keeping a stiff upper lip fell sharply showing fear of contagion to the center countries of the Zone.
On balance the Zone is troubled and its traditional relationships appear to be breaking down to some degree. With its traditional institutions also under pressure it is a difficult time to make assessments for Europe. The G20 meeting just concluded and had few specifics and a few polemics to support Europe. It is not clear a lot of this optimism is well-founded. Europe needs more concrete action and fewer statements of intent. The more we hear statements on European solidarity and the less we hear about what Europeans will do for one another the more skeptical I get.
| Italy Orders | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR Except M/M | Apr-12 | Mar-12 | Feb-12 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Q:2:D | % Peak |
| Total | -2.0% | 3.5% | -2.6% | -4.7% | -7.7% | -9.1% | -3.6% | 78.5% |
| Foreign | -4.3% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 6.4% | -4.6% | -4.0% | -4.8% | 85.0% |
| Domestic | -0.4% | 2.6% | -5.0% | -11.3% | -9.6% | -12.1% | -2.7% | 72.3% |
| Memo | ||||||||
| Sales | -0.5% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 8.1% | -0.2% | -3.6% | -1.8% | 87.9% |
| French Orders | ||||||||
| SAAR Except M/M | Apr-12 | Mar-12 | Feb-12 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Q-2-D | % Peak |
| Total | 3.0% | -1.2% | -0.5% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 12.5% | 82.0% |
| Foreign | 2.8% | -0.8% | -1.2% | 3.0% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 87.9% |
| IP xConstruct | -0.7% | 1.4% | -0.9% | -0.4% | -0.9% | -1.4% | 0.0% | 87.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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