Global| Jan 06 2005Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rose Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 43,000 to 364,000 last week following a deepened 10,000 decline the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 333,000 claims. The increase probably was influenced by the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 43,000 to 364,000 last week following a deepened 10,000 decline the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 333,000 claims.
The increase probably was influenced by the difficulties of seasonal adjustment during the Holiday season.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 333,000 (-7.3% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply for the second consecutive week, up 61,000 following an upwardly revised 53,000 increase the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it's been since early October.
Today's speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald L. Kohn titled "Crisis Management: The Known, The Unknown and the Unknowable" is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/01/05 | 12/25/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 364 | 321 | 0.0% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,840 | -14.0% | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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