Global| Nov 18 2004Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 3,000 to 334,000 from an upwardly revised 337,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 333,000 claims and the federal government's closure in observance of [...]
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 3,000 to 334,000 from an upwardly revised 337,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 333,000 claims and the federal government's closure in observance of the Veterans Day holiday during the week had no impact on the data.
The latest figure covers the survey period for November nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 4,000 (1.2%) from the October period.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 338,250 (-9.4% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,000 following a downwardly revised gain of 15,000 the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the sixth week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/13/04 | 11/06/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 334 | 337 | -10.0% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,792 | -19.3% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
