Global| Sep 11 2003Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose unexpectedly to 422,000 last week. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 400,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose unexpectedly to 422,000 last week. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 400,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 407,250 (+0.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose by a sharp 61,000 but the gain reported for the prior week was revised to show a decline of 23,000.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.9% where it's been for seven weeks.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 9/6/03 | 8/30/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 422.0 | 419.0 | 1.0% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,672 | 2.4% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2003
Prices for imported commodities rose in August by half the Consensus expectation for a 0.4% increase. The 0.2% gain was accompanied by a slight downward revision to non-oil prices in July but that was offset by a slight upward revision to oil prices.
Non-petroleum import prices fell 0.2% last month, the first m/m decline since May. Outside of oil, prices fell broadly. Prices for non-auto consumer goods fell 0.2% (-0.3% y/y). Prices for capital goods fell for the second month by 0.1% (-1.4% y/y). Motor vehicle prices rose a slight 0.1% following a 0.1% decline the month earlier (0.5% y/y).
Petroleum import prices rose 3.9% last month but so far in September the price of Brent Crude Oil is down from the $29.71/bbl averaged in August.
Export prices fell 0.1%, the fourth decline in the last five months. Export prices were mixed amongst the categories.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.1% | -2.5% | -3.5% | 6.5% |
| Petroleum | 3.9% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | -17.2% | 66.5% |
| Non-petroleum | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | -2.4% | -1.5% | 1.0% |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | -1.0% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2003
The U.S. foreign trade deficit grew to an expected $40.3B in July. The deficit in June was revised slightly deeper to $40.0B.
For the first seven months of this year, the trade deficit ran at a $489.4B annual rate versus the $418.0B deficit for all of last year.
Exports rose strongly for the third consecutive month, up 2.0%, and have risen at an 11.0% annual rate YTD. Exports of capital goods (18.4% YTD, AR) have been quite strong. Exports of non-auto consumer goods fell 1.3% following the 7.1% spike in June (15.6% AR).
Imports rose 1.6% in July reflecting sharply higher imports of food (2.6% m/m) and non-auto consumer goods. The latter rose 2.8% after a 3.7% June drop. The value of crude petroleum imports rose 14.0% as the per barrel price rose 4.7% to $26.70. The daily quantity of crude petroleum imports rose 5.4% (16.8% y/y).
| Foreign Trade | July | June | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $40.3B | $40.0B | $34.1B(7/02) | $418.0B | $357.8B | $375.4B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | -3.3% | -5.8% | 11.8% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 1.6% | 0.3% | 8.1% | 2.0% | -5.5% | 18.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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