Global| Feb 15 2006Industrial Production Off Due to Warm Weather
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output fell last month by 0.7% following an upwardly revised 0.9% rise during December. The decline, however, wholly reflected the warm temperatures which reduced utility output by 10.2% (-4.7% y/y). Consensus [...]
Overall industrial output fell last month by 0.7% following an upwardly revised 0.9% rise during December. The decline, however, wholly reflected the warm temperatures which reduced utility output by 10.2% (-4.7% y/y). Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% increase in total output.
Factory sector production increased 0.7% (4.5% y/y) following a December increase of 0.4% that was double the initial estimated gain.
A rebound in output of motor vehicles & parts accounted for only some of last month's factory output gain as a 2.3% m/m increase still left production 3.8% below last June's level. Excluding motor vehicles, factory output rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y). Output of appliances, furniture & carpeting recovered 2.1% (3.2% y/y) following three months of decline and clothing output rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y), the third straight monthly increase.
Output of business equipment rose a strong 1.0% (10.7% y/y) led by a 1.6% (24.3% y/y) increase in high tech output. Excluding the high tech sector, factory output rose 0.6% (3.3% y/y) and excluding both autos & high tech factory output rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y).
Total capacity utilization fell to 80.9% but factory sector utilization rose to 80.5%, the highest level since 2000.
Today's testimony by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is available here.
The complete Monetary Policy Report and the Economic Outlook can be found here.
| Production & Capacity | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | -0.2% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Business Equipment | 1.0% | 0.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Capacity Utilization | 80.9% | 81.2% | 79.8% (1/05) | 80.1% | 78.6% | 75.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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