Global| Mar 18 2005Imported Price Inflation Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices rose 0.8% last month and about matched Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. The prior month's increase was revised down slightly due to a lessened gain in petroleum prices but the estimated rise in nonpetroleum prices [...]
Import prices rose 0.8% last month and about matched Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. The prior month's increase was revised down slightly due to a lessened gain in petroleum prices but the estimated rise in nonpetroleum prices was revised higher.
Petroleum prices jumped 3.9% on top of the 3.4% surge the prior month. So far in March the price of Brent Crude oil has averaged $52.15 per barrel, up 14.2% versus the $45.66 averaged last month.
Other than oil, import prices continued to move moderately higher. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y) though prices in most categories were little changed. Capital goods prices also were unchanged m/m (-0.6% y/y) but lower computer prices (-0.4% m/m, -6.8% y/y) accounted for most of the weakness. Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y) and contrasted with price deflation in excess of 2% early in 2002.
Export prices were unchanged last month as a 0.9% decline (-8.2% y/y) in agricultural prices offset a 0.1% (4.7% y/y) gain in nonagricultural export prices.
Exchange Rates and the Prices of Manufacturing Products Imported into the United States is a 2002 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of New England.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.8% | 0.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
| Petroleum | 3.9% | 3.4% | 26.6% | 30.4% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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