Global| Dec 23 2008IFO Details Show Widespread Gloom in Germany
Summary
With the release of the new detail, the IFO headline has not changed but the report now reveals how impacted the whole of the survey is from the ongoing weakness and gathering gloom. Germany’s IFO headline at 82.6 in Dec. from 96.3 in [...]
With the release of the new detail, the IFO headline has not
changed but the report now reveals how impacted the whole of the survey
is from the ongoing weakness and gathering gloom.
Germany’s IFO headline at 82.6 in Dec. from 96.3 in Nov. is
now the weakest since 1991. The current manufacturing situation is in
the bottom 19th percent of its range for that period. Business
expectations, activity and orders on hand all are the worst readings on
record for the period. The reading for ‘Foreign orders on hand’ is now
the relative strongest category and it resides in the bottom 25% of its
range.
The three-month outlook for expected MFG activity has slipped
to its weakest reading of the period since 1998. Orders, expectations
for Retailing and Wholesaling are around the bottom 20% of their
respective ranges. Despite foreign orders on hand having held up the
expectations for export business on the part of manufactures is the
worst of the survey period. Employment expectations in manufacturing
are also their worst of the period. The German IFO survey leaves little
cheer for Christmas.
| IFO Survey: Germany | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | |||||||
| Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Current | Average | Percentile | |
| Biz Climate | -20.0% | -17.8% | -13.4% | -10.9% | -10.5% | 82.6 | 96.3 | 0.0% |
| Current Situation | -18.1% | -14.2% | -8.9% | -9.4% | -7.5% | 88.8 | 96.3 | 18.0% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | -22.0% | -21.3% | -17.6% | -12.6% | -13.4% | 76.8 | 96.4 | 0.0% |
| Manufacturing: | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Current | Average | Percentile |
| Current Situation | ||||||||
| MFG | -25.8% | -19.5% | -12.4% | -11.9% | -8.9% | 81.1 | 93.5 | 19.6% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | ||||||||
| MFG | -27.0% | -25.4% | -21.5% | -15.8% | -16.9% | 70.8 | 95.8 | 0.0% |
| Activity (m/m) | ||||||||
| MFG | -25.1% | -17.8% | -7.7% | -10.1% | -8.5% | 75.1 | 96.9 | 0.0% |
| Demand M/M | ||||||||
| MFG | -27.5% | -25.8% | -15.3% | -16.0% | -10.8% | 70.1 | 96.5 | 0.0% |
| Orders on hand | ||||||||
| MFG | -26.7% | -22.5% | -13.2% | -14.7% | -11.2% | 73.6 | 96.1 | 0.0% |
| Foreign orders on hand | ||||||||
| MFG | -23.3% | -17.6% | -14.0% | -9.7% | -7.7% | 84.6 | 94.8 | 24.5% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices | ||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | ||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | ||||||
| Expected Activity | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Current | Average | Percentile |
| MFG | -24.8% | -22.2% | -13.9% | -9.2% | -10.8% | 77.3 | 96.7 | 0.0% |
| Orders Expectations | Changes over 12-months | |||||||
| Retail Orders | -22.0% | -24.0% | -5.0% | -4.0% | -10.0% | -32.0 | -16.1 | 22.4% |
| Wholesale | -32.0% | -30.0% | -16.0% | -12.0% | -15.0% | -26.0 | -12.4 | 17.9% |
| EXPORT Biz Expectations | ||||||||
| MFG | -23.3% | -19.0% | -13.3% | -9.6% | -7.2% | 80.7 | 98.1 | 0.0% |
| Employment Expectations | ||||||||
| MFG (Since June 1997) | -20.6% | -15.5% | -9.8% | -8.7% | -8.3% | 87.4 | 96.2 | 0.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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