Global| Feb 16 2006Housing Starts Lifted By Mild Weather
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts jumped 14.5% m/m during January to 2.276M units, the highest since 1973, following a December decline which was revised shallower. New construction activity most certainly was aided by the record warm temperatures last [...]
Housing starts jumped 14.5% m/m during January to 2.276M units, the highest since 1973, following a December decline which was revised shallower. New construction activity most certainly was aided by the record warm temperatures last month. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser rise to 2.02M starts.
A 12.8% spike in single-family starts to 1.819M, a new record, more than reversed a 10.5% decline during December. The benefit from mild weather was clear from the regional figures which indicated a 23.3% (21.4% y/y) surge in the Northeast and a 31.0% (19.6% y/y) gain in the Midwest. The continuing benefit from low mortgage interest rates also was evident as single family starts in the South rose 8.3% (-1.0% y/y) and in the West by 7.3% (-5.3% y/y).
Multi family starts also were helped by the warmth and jumped 21.9% m/m to a new record high. Building permits rounded out last month's strength with a 6.8% gain to the highest level since September.
Today's testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs was identical to yesterday's and is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,276 | 1,988 | 4.0% | 2,072 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,819 | 1,613 | 2.8% | 1,716 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 457 | 375 | 9.1% | 355 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 2,217 | 2,075 | 3.8% | 2,122 | 2,058 | 1,8 88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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