Global| Jul 16 2007HICP Trends Show Pressure
Summary
The chart on select core HICP readings violates the rule on how many lines to plot on a graph (sorry). But the clear message is that few of these are trending lower and most are trending up. Among those that have any trend lower, [...]
The chart on select core HICP readings violates the rule on how many lines to plot on a graph (sorry). But the clear message is that few of these are trending lower and most are trending up. Among those that have any trend lower, there is usually abysmally high inflation rate anyway (Greece and Spain, for example).
The table below presents the discernable detail on core inflation trends on data that were not available last week. The table shows that inflation is accelerating in too many countries for comfort. In the same table we slice the data into a number of 12-month periods ended in June since that is the most recent observation.
As of June 2007 inflation was accelerating in half of the select 12 EMU members. Over the past year inflation also was higher on a year/year basis in seven countries than it had been in June of 2004. Any way you look at the inflation comparisons there is a hint of inflation. And these data look at core prices excluding the direct effects of food and energy inflation. These four presentations, the chars and the table below, make it clear why the ECB remains wary about inflation forces.
Inflation is simply trending higher into many categories to be ignored and across too many EMU countries to assume that it will go down all by itself.
  |
| Jun-07 | Jun-06 | Jun-05 | Jun-04 | |
| Austria | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Belgium | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Finland | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.4% |
| France | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Germany | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| Greece | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
| Ireland | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% |
| Italy | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| Luxembourg | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| The Netherlands | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Portugal | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| Spain | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| EMU Core HICP | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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