Global| Sep 07 2010German Orders Head South
Summary
German orders rolled over in July after a string of strong gains that extend back to about January. The German orders recovery dates from March of 2009 and from that point there have been only four monthly declines in orders of which [...]
German orders rolled over in July after a string of strong gains that extend back to about January. The German orders
recovery dates from March of 2009 and from that point there have been only four monthly declines in orders of which this
month's drop is the largest.
Export orders dropped by 3.7 percent in July from June, undercut by a 6.1 percent decline from the 16-member Euro-Area, the report showed. Domestic sales fell 0.3 percent.
Orders for capital goods plunged declining for the second month in a row for the fist time since February of 2009.
Germany had been Europe's darling. Some are now saying how this orders drop is evidence that Germany cannot decouple from the global economy. Are we surprised? Germany has been engaged in nurturing export led growth while the world around it has been weakening. How on earth could it ever has sustained that trick? Unless the rest of they world picked up, Germany was bound to steer into a dead end for orders. Now it seems to have happened. It's hard to be surprised by this although it is interesting that he IFO survey has not yet tipped off this sort of weakness. The Zew financial experts have been more wary.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Jul-10 | Jun-10 | May-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Yr Ago | QTR-2 Date |
|
| Total Orders | -2.2% | 3.6% | -0.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 17.6% | -19.9% | 0.4% |
| Foreign | -3.7% | 6.6% | 0.2% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 25.3% | -24.8% | 3.0% |
| Domestic | -0.3% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -2.7% | -1.3% | 9.6% | -14.1% | -2.3% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -0.9% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 9.9% | -17.0% | -1.2% |
| Consumer | 0.6% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | -7.8% | 6.0% |
| Cons Durables | 3.0% | -1.0% | 5.6% | 34.2% | 15.8% | 13.4% | -18.3% | 27.2% |
| Cons Non-Durable | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | -5.8% | 2.5% |
| Captial Gds | -3.2% | -0.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 10.0% | -21.6% | -11.7% |
| Intermediate Gds | 1.5% | -0.6% | 1.6% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 14.6% | -16.3% | 9.8% |
| All MFG-Sales | -0.9% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 9.9% | -16.9% | -1.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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