Global| Nov 02 2006German Labor Markets Show More Distinct Gain
Summary
German labor market data for September and October were reported today. We last checked in with these data at the end of June. The most notable factor then was an increase in job vacancies, and we wondered if they would translate into [...]
German labor market data for September and October were reported today. We last checked in with these data at the end of June. The most notable factor then was an increase in job vacancies, and we wondered if they would translate into actual jobs. This may have happened -- at least to some extent.
Total employment in September was 39.17 million, up 24,000 from August and 334,000 or 0.9% from September 2005. It has risen for seven consecutive months (seasonally adjusted), and marks the longest such span since 1999/2000.
Moreover, the number of job vacancies has continued to rise. In October employers reported opportunities for 662,000 workers, and increase of 45,000 from September and 179,000 from a year ago. This increase in vacancies, when filled, would add about 0.5% to total employment.
The unemployment situation is mixed and depends on what measure one looks at. The harmonized "ILO" unemployment rate was 8.3% in September, steady with August, but up from a recent low of 7.9% in April. Germans prefer their own measure of "registered" unemployment rate, and it has declined, dipping to 10.4% in October, the lowest since April 2004. Among labor force groups, all sectors of the population have seen some year-on-year improvement in recent months (the individual categories are not seasonally adjusted, necessitating comparisons with like periods of prior years) and the rate for men in particular has reached down to 9.1%, the lowest since October 2001. Thus, job opportunities are increasing in Germany, and with a record number of vacancies shown in this report, that may yield more workers in the months ahead.
| Germany: Seas Adj, ex as noted | Oct 2006 | Sept 2006 | Aug 2006 | Year Ago | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFS Employment (mil) | -- | 39.17 | 39.14 | 38.84 | 38.82 | 38.87 | 38.72 |
| Change (thous) | -- | +24 | +34 | +334 | -53 | +150 | -370 |
| Yr/Yr % Chg NSA | -- | -- | -- | +0.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -0.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%, ILO Def.) | -- | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| Registered Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| Job Vacancies (thous) | 662 | 617 | 589 | 483 | 488 | 278 | 318 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
