Global| Mar 12 2009German IP Sinks Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Among large EU economies that have reported results, Germany shows the fastest dropping industrial production over three-months as well as in the quarter-to-date. Its 8.1% plunge in MFG IP is right in line with the reported 8% drop in [...]
Among large EU economies that have reported results, Germany
shows the fastest dropping industrial production over three-months as
well as in the quarter-to-date. Its 8.1% plunge in MFG IP is right in
line with the reported 8% drop in new orders. The new orders series
continues to point to an accelerating pace of decline in the months
ahead. Orders have been falling at a faster pace than IP for over a
year as output declines have accelerated. Over three-months the order
drop is at a pace of 60% compared to a drop at a 50% pace for output
itself.
Consumer goods output is proving to be the stalwart of the
recession in Germany. This is not too surprising because the German
consumer has been like a rock, not accelerating spending much in the
economy’s strong phase and now not decelerating much in the down phase.
Still consumer goods output s dropping at a 6.4% pace over three months
and is down by about 5% Yr/Yr. that compares to a better than 50% rate
of decline for capital goods output and a better than 60% rate of
decline for intermediate goods output. Consumer goods are a moderating
factor.
| Total German IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-Date |
| IP total | -7.5% | -3.9% | -4.0% | -47.1% | -30.3% | -19.2% | -51.1% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.4% | 1.4% | -2.6% | -6.4% | -1.5% | -4.8% | -2.1% |
| Capital Goods | -12.3% | -3.2% | -3.0% | -53.9% | -35.1% | -22.8% | -62.4% |
| Intermediary Goods | -8.1% | -9.1% | -6.2% | -62.2% | -43.6% | -25.4% | -64.2% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Construction | -7.8% | 5.9% | 0.3% | -7.8% | 0.4% | -16.4% | -22.2% |
| MFG IP | -8.1% | -4.7% | -4.2% | -50.4% | -32.9% | -20.5% | -54.6% |
| MFG Orders | -8.0% | -7.6% | -6.8% | -60.7% | -51.4% | -35.2% | -62.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
