Global| Mar 22 2006Gasoline Prices Up On Stronger Demand
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week's jump in the U.S. average price for gasoline to $2.50 per gallon lifted prices 13.6% above the yearend 2005 level. This strength certainly reflects some pass through of this year's rise in crude oil prices. Crude costs are [...]
Last week's jump in the U.S. average price for gasoline to $2.50 per gallon lifted prices 13.6% above the yearend 2005 level. This strength certainly reflects some pass through of this year's rise in crude oil prices.
Crude costs are up 4.2% year to date and 8.1% y/y though the spot price for WTI crude at $60.58 is off its high reached earlier in the year of $67.83 per barrel.
Supplies of gasoline, however, are plentiful. Strong imports of motor gasoline (+31.5% y/y) have offset weakness in gasoline production (+1.0% y/y). That has lifted gasoline inventories 17.8% (1.1% y/y) from the low early last September. (These figures are available in the Haver OILWKLY database.)
Drivers seem to be growing accustomed to higher gasoline prices. Since last year the four week average level of gasoline consumption, through early March, rose 0.6%.
The just-released figures from the Federal Highway Administration (MVMPM@USECON in the Haver database) indicate that passenger car miles driven during 2004 rose 2.0% from the year prior and rose 20.4% during the last ten years.
Reducing Gasoline Consumption: Three Policy Options is a 2002 study from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| Weekly Prices | 03/20/06 | 12/27/05 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail Gasoline Price per Gallon | $2.50 | $2.20 | 18.7% | $2.27 | $1.85 | $1.56 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI (per bbl.) | $60.58 | $58.16 | 8.1% | $58.16 | $41.78 | $32.78 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
