Global| Aug 10 2009French Output Begins To Stabilize
Summary
French industrial output in June has expanded by 0.3% m/m after rising by 2.8% in May, turning the three-month rate of growth positive. Capital goods and intermediate goods output lead the rise. The output of consumer goods is still [...]
French industrial output in June has expanded by 0.3% m/m
after rising by 2.8% in May, turning the three-month rate of growth
positive. Capital goods and intermediate goods output lead the rise.
The output of consumer goods is still falling over three months
although consumer nondurables output is looking steadier than consumer
durable goods output, which fell sharply in June.
In the completed quarter to date output in France is off by
3.2% at an annual rate. Output in the quarter is stabilized by the
rising output of consumer nondurable goods and capital goods, each of
which rose at a pace of 6.4% in Q2. But consumer durables output is
still falling at a 16.1% annual rate and intermediate goods output
fell, dragging the overall growth rate of production into negative
territory for the quarter.
Auto output is up strongly on auto incentives. Output for the
auto sector is up at a 266% annual rate over three months and at a 47%
annual rate in the quarter, helping to buoy the economy.
On balance the French figures are offering very hopefuls signs
of stabilization in the sector. Europe is trying to find its footing
and France is part of the solution.
| French IP Excluding Construction | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Jun-09 | May-09 | Apr-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-date |
| IP total | 0.3% | 2.8% | -1.4% | 7.2% | -10.0% | -12.8% | -3.2% |
| Consumer Dur | -2.7% | 0.9% | -2.3% | -15.1% | -18.6% | -17.6% | -16.1% |
| Consumer Ndur | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -1.2% | -12.3% | -3.7% | 6.4% |
| Capital | 1.3% | 2.7% | -0.1% | 16.4% | -10.7% | -14.1% | 6.4% |
| Intermed | -0.3% | 3.7% | -0.4% | 12.6% | -8.4% | -21.6% | -0.7% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Auto | 14.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 266.7% | 41.9% | -24.3% | 47.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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