Global| Mar 21 2008French Orders in Holding Pattern With Strong Foreign Orders
Summary
French industrial orders are hanging tough in an environment where Euro Area growth is fading and the euro is getting stronger. Total new orders and foreign orders are however losing some momentum after spurting strongly in mid-2007 [...]
French industrial orders are hanging tough in an environment
where Euro Area growth is fading and the euro is getting stronger.
Total new orders and foreign orders are however losing some momentum
after spurting strongly in mid-2007 as the chart above shows. While off
peak and while showing some so-far short-lived downtrend, French
domestic and foreign orders are still at firm levels and slipping only
very gradually.
Despite Euro Area weakening, France has one of the higher NTC
MFG indices in the Zone, at 53.8 in February just short of Germany’s at
54.3. And, like Germany, France has seen its rate of unemployment over
the past year drop by more than one percentage point, faster than for
the Euro Area as a whole. On the face of it, France’s economy is still
doing well but household confidence is off sharply, MFG surveys show
weakening trends, business climate is off peak and has flattened out,
and the services sector climate index has been sliding. With France we
must be aware that some of the recent trends that can be viewed a still
firm exist in an environment where other survey responses seem to show
relatively more concern and more slippage.
| French Orders | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
| Total | 3.1% | -2.1% | -0.2% | 3.0% | -2.7% | 5.9% |
| Foreign | 3.3% | -0.9% | 1.8% | 18.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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