Global| Jun 26 2008French Household Confidence is Diving
Summary
The French household confidence index fell to -46 in June from -42 in May. This series goes back to January of 1990. Since then there are 222 observations. This index is the lowest on this period. Living standards over the last 12 [...]
The French household confidence index fell to -46 in June from -42 in May. This series goes back to January of 1990. Since then there are 222 observations. This index is the lowest on this period. Living standards over the last 12 months and the coming 12 months were and are expected to be the worst of this period. The past and future financial situations are also the worst on record. The ability to save over the next twelve months is the second worst on record. The ability to spend is the second worst on record. In contrast price developments are rated as the highest on record for this period.
The current financial situation is rated in the bottom quartile of its range. Unemployment prospects are only mid-range and improved a tic from last month. Still, these two months are the worst unemployment readings since December of 2006 even though they are mid-range.
| INSEE Household Monthly Survey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Jan 1990 | ||||||
| Jun-08 | May-08 | Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Percentile | Rank | |
| Household Confidence | -46 | -42 | -38 | -37 | 0.0 | 222 |
| Living Standards | ||||||
| past 12 Mos | -78 | -75 | -71 | -71 | 0.0 | 222 |
| Next 12-Mos | -57 | -50 | -44 | -41 | 0.0 | 222 |
| Unemployment: Next 12 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 49.1 | 142 |
| Price Developments | ||||||
| Past 12Mo | 66 | 66 | 58 | 60 | 100.0 | 1 |
| Next 12-Mos | -28 | -34 | -35 | -41 | 35.2 | 52 |
| Savings | ||||||
| Favorable to save | 20 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 44.4 | 145 |
| Ability to save Next 12 | -21 | -20 | -13 | -17 | 6.9 | 221 |
| Spending | ||||||
| Favorable for major purchase | -37 | -33 | -30 | -29 | 8.6 | 221 |
| Financial Situation | ||||||
| Current | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 23.8 | 172 |
| Past 12 MOs | -35 | -33 | -30 | -31 | 0.0 | 222 |
| Next 12-Mos | -23 | -19 | -17 | -15 | 0.0 | 222 |
| Number of observations in the period: 222 | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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