Global| Jun 25 2008French Business Confidence is FLAT On the Month Outlook is Buoyant!
Summary
French business confidence in June is flat at its May level and is just above its long term average. As such it stands in the 58th percentile of its range in June. Orders, both domestic and foreign, slipped in the month but the two [...]
French business confidence in June is flat at its May level
and is just above its long term average. As such it stands in the 58th
percentile of its range in June. Orders, both domestic and foreign,
slipped in the month but the two series still rank in the 56 to 57
percentiles of their respective ranges. That is a bit above mid-range.
A reading of 50 is neutral. French businesses still see a lot of price
pressure as the index for prices held at 14 which is at the 78th
percentile of its range. As to production, the recent trend is sub par
at -15; it ranks in the 42nd percentile, below the range mid-point. But
the likely trend is firm in the 56th percentile reading on a +7 raw
reading.
French businesses are not so wary of the future. They are
undeterred apparently by the strong euro, the expected ECB rate hike,
rising inflation prospects, financial turmoil and a weakening global
economy. The survey participants remain upbeat.
| INSEE Industry Survey | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
| Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate | 102 | 102 | 106 | 108 | 58.0 | 106 | 123 | 73 | 50 | 101 |
| Production | ||||||||||
| Recent Trend | -15 | -14 | -7 | -6 | 42.2 | 140 | 44 | -58 | 102 | -5 |
| Likely trend | 7 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 56.6 | 113 | 30 | -23 | 53 | 6 |
| Orders/Demand | ||||||||||
| Orders & Demand | -13 | -10 | -5 | 1 | 56.3 | 100 | 25 | -62 | 87 | -14 |
| Foreign Orders & Demand | -7 | -6 | 3 | 1 | 57.3 | 96 | 31 | -58 | 89 | -10 |
| Prices | ||||||||||
| Likely Sales Price Trend | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 78.7 | 20 | 24 | -23 | 47 | 1 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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