Global| Jun 27 2007France’s Service and Industry Sector Outlook Strong
Summary
French climate and outlook are on a strong improving trend. The services sector is still doing well. The climate and outlook indicators are strong in their respective ranges. Observed and expected sales are still strong but both are [...]
French climate and outlook are on a strong improving trend.
The services sector is still doing well. The climate and outlook indicators are strong in their respective ranges. Observed and expected sales are still strong but both are off peak. Observed and expected employment indicators are also off peak. The expected responses for these two indicators are sharply lower in June. Expected series are firm but only in about the 60th percentile of their respective ranges.
The second table below summarizes France’s Industry survey for June. The report scrapped and got back two of the four points it lost in May. The trends are still firm with climate nearly in the upper 25 percentile of its range. Recent and likely trend assessments spurted in June. Foreign and also domestic orders are slipping slightly with both having peaks in April.
| Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate Indicator | 109 | 109 | 108 | 109 | 78.8 | 8 | 116 | 83 | 33 | 102 |
| Climate: 3-Mo MAV | 109 | 109 | 108 | 108 | 81.6 | 14 | 114 | 85 | 29 | 102 |
| Climate: 12-Mo MAV | 109 | 109 | 109 | 108 | 92.4 | 3 | 110 | 91 | 20 | 101 |
| Outlook | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 86.1 | 6 | 14 | -22 | 36 | -1 |
| Sales | ||||||||||
| Observed 3-Mos | 14 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 83.3 | 9 | 19 | -11 | 30 | 6 |
| Expected 3-Mos | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 68.8 | 19 | 22 | -10 | 32 | 7 |
| Sales Price | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 41.7 | 29 | 8 | -4 | 12 | 0 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 60.0 | 38 | 5 | -5 | 10 | 1 |
| Employment | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 70.6 | 11 | 23 | -11 | 34 | 5 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | 10 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 60.0 | 17 | 20 | -5 | 25 | 5 |
| Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
| Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate | 110 | 108 | 112 | 109 | 74.0 | 41 | 123 | 73 | 50 | 101 |
| Production | ||||||||||
| Recent Trend | 24 | 14 | 10 | -2 | 80.4 | 30 | 44 | -58 | 102 | -6 |
| Likely trend | 28 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 63.5 | 33 | 63 | -33 | 96 | 7 |
| Orders/Demand | ||||||||||
| Orders & Demand | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 75.9 | 27 | 25 | -62 | 87 | -15 |
| Foreign Orders & Demand | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 69.7 | 48 | 31 | -58 | 89 | -11 |
| Prices | ||||||||||
| Likely Sales Prices Trend | 9 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 68.1 | 31 | 24 | -23 | 47 | 0 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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