Global| Jan 24 2008Existing Home Sales Lowest Since 1998, Prices Off 10% Since Peak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing single family homes slipped 2.0% during December after a very slight 0.7% uptick in November. The decline was to the lowest level since 1998 and since the sales peak [...]
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing single family homes slipped 2.0% during December after a very slight 0.7% uptick in November. The decline was to the lowest level since 1998 and since the sales peak in late 2005, sales were down by roughly one third. For the full year sales fell 13.0% on top of a 7.7% decline in 2005.
Sales including condominiums fell 2.2% last month and ended the year down 22.0% from last December, down 12.8% for the full year.
By region, home sales in the Northeast fell 4.6% (-22.4% y/y) and for the full year were off 7.5% after the 6.9% 2006 drop. In the Midwest December sales fell 1.7%, 10.6% for the full year, while sales in the South ended the year with a 1.0% drop. Combined with a 2.0% fall in November overall sales in the South last year fell 13.0%. The worst of it came out West. The 2.1% December decline pulled sales for the year down 19.2% after a 16.2% drop during 2006. For the full year, sales of single family homes in the West was the lowest since 1998.
The median price of an existing single family home fell 0.4% (-6.5% y/y) in December. It was the fifth m/m decline in the last six months. It lowered prices for the full year 2.8% below the 2006 level, the first full year decline in the thirty five year history of the series. Since the peak early last year, home prices were off 9.9% in December.
Perspectives on Housing and the Economic Outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
The latest Budget Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
| Existing Single Family Home Sales |
December | y/y % | November | December '06 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,890 | -22.0 | 5,000 | 6,270 | 5,679 | 6,510 | 7,075 |
| Northeast | 830 | -22.4 | 870 | 1,070 | 1,007 | 1,088 | 1,169 |
| Midwest | 1,160 | -20.5 | 1,180 | 1,160 | 1,334 | 1,492 | 1,588 |
| South | 1,970 | -20.9 | 1,990 | 2,490 | 2,243 | 2,578 | 2,704 |
| West | 940 | -24.8 | 960 | 1,250 | 1,094 | 1,353 | 1,616 |
| Single-Family | 4,310 | -21.6 | 4,400 | 5,500 | 4,966 | 5,708 | 6,182 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 206,500 | -6.5 | 207,300 | 220,800 | 215,642 | 221,883 | 217,492 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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