Global| Jun 13 2012Euro-Area Sectors on Same Downtrend
Summary
EMU IP fell by 1.7% in April after rising by 1.1% in March. Over three months all the major IP categories show negative growth rates. Of the eight EU/EMU nations in the table six show decline in IP over three-months. Over six months [...]
EMU IP fell by 1.7% in April after rising by 1.1% in March. Over three months all the major IP categories show
negative growth rates. Of the eight EU/EMU nations in the table six show decline in IP over three-months.
Over six months all IP categories are declining. Over six months six of eight of the countries in the table are showing declines in their respective IP.
Over 12-months five of six major IP categories across EMU are declining in EMU. Only capital goods output is up by 0.2% over 12-months. Again six of eight of the countries in the table show their respective IP indices falling over 12-months. The trends are all one way and are pretty clear cut
The speed of the IP decline is at 2.9% over 12 months and at 4.1% over both three-month a six-month horizons. France is showing IP increases over all horizons and acceleration in the rate of expansion over all. Ireland is show increases in IP over several horizons.
In the recent quarter (one month into Q2) the level of IP in April is advancing over the Q1 level in five of eight countries in the table but in overall EMU all categories are showing declines. The rate of decline for EMU as a whole in the nascent quarter is quite sharp. But there are several countries Ireland, Greece and France, in particular, with contrary sharp rebounds in IP under way early in Q2.
Overall, the troubles in the Zone are clear and well in train. Growth is withering. The recent un-bailout of Spanish banks has not really taken hold. The entire Zone is walking on eggshells waiting for the Greek election results this weekend. It is a still touch and go situation in Europe.
| Euro-Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR Except M/M | Mo/Mo | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
|||
| Euro-Area Detail | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Jan 12 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q2D |
| MFG | 0.9% | -0.4% | -0.1% | 1.6% | -4.0% | -1.2% | -7.7% | -1.3% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| Consumer | 0.7% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -6.3% | -8.4% | -4.7% | -9.1% | -3.8% | -4.5% | -7.7% |
| C-Durables | -0.2% | -1.7% | 0.2% | -6.8% | -6.3% | -5.8% | -12.8% | -6.0% | -6.2% | -- |
| C-Non-durables | 0.8% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -5.2% | -8.1% | -4.6% | -8.6% | -3.4% | -4.0% | -- |
| Intermediate | 1.0% | -1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | -6.2% | -2.9% | -8.6% | -2.8% | -3.9% | -2.1% |
| Capital | 1.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 8.8% | -0.1% | 3.8% | -5.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
||||
| MFG Only | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Jan 12 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q2D |
| Germany: | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 11.5% | -2.8% | 2.1% | -5.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| France: IPx Construct'n | -0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.9% | -1.3% | -0.2% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| Italy | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.5% | -10.9% | -8.1% | -4.3% | -13.2% | -5.4% | -6.3% | -8.0% |
| Spain | -2.5% | -3.9% | 2.6% | -14.7% | -1.0% | -10.1% | -8.1% | -9.2% | -7.1% | -1.7% |
| Ireland | -2.7% | -3.2% | 0.7% | -19.0% | -1.1% | -15.0% | -20.5% | -5.8% | -3.1% | -18.9% |
| Greece | -1.7% | -2.7% | 4.2% | -1.6% | -4.2% | -13.5% | -9.3% | -8.8% | -8.3% | 5.4% |
| Portugal | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 12.2% | -3.2% | -4.0% | -17.5% | -5.8% | -7.2% | -2.4% |
| UK: EU member | 0.8% | -1.0% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 0.0% |
| Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality | ||||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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