Global| Jun 22 2009EMU Trade Balance Deficit For Goods Shrinks
Summary
The EMU (16-country) consolidated balance of trade with countries outside the region fell to eru336mln in April from eur1.7bln in March. The Year-to-date deficit of eur2.5BLn is below the YTD average for the same period of a year ago [...]
The EMU (16-country) consolidated balance of trade with
countries outside the region fell to eru336mln in April from eur1.7bln
in March. The Year-to-date deficit of eur2.5BLn is below the YTD
average for the same period of a year ago that stood at eur 1.1bln.
Over the last year and the last six months exports and imports
are declining at about the same speed in percentage terms. But over the
last three months exports have stabilized dropping at just a 0.5%
annual rate compared to imports whose decline is at a 17% annual rate.
So the export decline has been out ahead of the import decline until
this month when more stable exports allowed imports to catch up with
the export Yr/Yr and six month trends.
The bar chart shows that the goods deficit has been on an
improving trend for the last four months but before that the
performance had been somewhat erratic. Year-over-Year export and import
declines now are very much in step.
| Ezone 16-Trade trends for goods | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | |||||
| Apr-09 | Mar-09 | 3M | 6M | 12M | 12M Ago | |
| Balance* | €€ (336) | €€ (1,780) | €€ (1,396) | €€ (2,432) | €€ 399 | €€ (183) |
| Exports | ||||||
| All Exp | -1.3% | 1.5% | -0.5% | -36.6% | -24.3% | 12.4% |
| Food and Drinks | -1.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | -21.3% | -12.1% | 18.2% |
| Raw materials | 0.6% | 10.6% | 66.7% | -31.8% | -26.9% | 19.7% |
| Other | -1.4% | 1.2% | -2.1% | -37.7% | -25.1% | 11.8% |
| MFG | -2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | -35.7% | -24.3% | 10.3% |
| IMPORTS | ||||||
| All IMP | -2.7% | 0.6% | -17.4% | -38.1% | -24.3% | 12.7% |
| Food and Drinks | -6.8% | 6.5% | 1.1% | -11.2% | -8.3% | 14.8% |
| Raw materials | -7.9% | -0.8% | -44.3% | -63.2% | -40.7% | 8.5% |
| Other | -2.1% | 0.3% | -17.2% | -38.1% | -24.4% | 12.8% |
| MFG | -5.9% | 2.7% | -25.4% | -34.7% | -23.5% | 6.7% |
| *Eur mlns; mo or period average | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
