Global| May 05 2010EMU Service Sector Continues To Improve
Summary
The services sector continues to improve in EMU with the EMU and German indices rising in April to their strongest levels since late in 2007 (France was last stronger in Nov of 2009; Italy’s index slipped in April). While Germany and [...]
The services sector continues to improve in EMU with the EMU and German indices rising in April to their strongest levels since late in 2007 (France was last stronger in Nov of 2009; Italy’s index slipped in April).
While Germany and the overall EMU measures continue to rise strongly some countries in the Zone are slowing their progress, as the French and Italian comparisons show. The services sector is still where the jobs are and this sector is not as vibrant as the manufacturing sector.
The Euro-Area retail sales for April were flat in volume terms and barley higher Yr/Yr. The consumer sector has just not come alive in Europe and that is a key part of the services sector.
Looking ahead there will be challenges to Europe’s service sector. The ash cloud that shut down air transportation has just shut down a few more airports in Scotland. Those interruptions will probably affect services, especially tourism. Greece which is a hot tourism destination will have been off limits to most tourists during the time of its upheaval. And, since Greece is in the Zone there is no such thing as a post crisis ‘drachma discount.’ Indeed, with strikes still in progress in Greece there is no telling how much the tourists season will harmed as we head into summer.
| Markit Services Indices for EU/EMU | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-10 | Mar-10 | Feb-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile | |
| Euro-Area | 55.60 | 54.08 | 51.81 | 53.83 | 53.44 | 50.77 | 76.4% |
| Germany | 55.22 | 54.86 | 51.89 | 53.99 | 53.04 | 51.11 | 70.7% |
| France | 59.17 | 53.80 | 54.60 | 55.86 | 57.23 | 53.72 | 85.0% |
| Italy | 54.47 | 55.34 | 50.76 | 53.52 | 52.53 | 49.35 | 69.3% |
| Spain | 50.93 | 51.27 | 47.12 | 49.77 | 48.21 | 45.82 | 70.6% |
| Ireland | 51.02 | 49.61 | 48.84 | 49.82 | 48.15 | 46.05 | 56.0% |
| EU only | |||||||
| UK (CIPs) | #N/A | 56.46 | 58.41 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| EU Commission Indices for EU and EMU | |||||||
| EU Index | Apr-10 | Mar-10 | Feb-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile |
| EU Services | 4 | 1 | 0 | -16.33 | -16.33 | -19.42 | 54.3% |
| EMU | Apr-10 | Mar-10 | Feb-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile |
| Services | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2.33 | -0.17 | -8.21 | 55.6% |
| Cons Confidence | -15 | -17 | -17 | -16.33 | -16.33 | -11.94 | 54.3% |
| Consumer confidence by country | |||||||
| Germany-Ccon | -7 | -13 | -17 | -12.33 | -15.00 | -19.58 | 60.5% |
| France-Ccon | -20 | -19 | -17 | -18.67 | -18.00 | -22.75 | 42.5% |
| Ital-Ccon | -21 | -22 | -22 | -21.67 | -19.17 | -18.75 | 31.4% |
| UK-Ccon | -6 | -5 | -2 | -4.33 | -6.00 | -10.42 | 76.3% |
| percentile is over range since May 2000 | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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