Global| May 04 2012EMU Retail Sales Move Higher
Summary
Euro-Area Retail sales are up by 0.3% in March and are accelerating over three months compared to six months. Motor vehicle registrations rebounded in March after a plunge February that followed a disaster in January. Their growth [...]
Euro-Area Retail sales are up by 0.3% in March and are accelerating over three months compared to six months. Motor vehicle
registrations rebounded in March after a plunge February that followed a disaster in January. Their growth rates are still
seriously impacted.
Still it's only month and it may or may not be meaningful. Germany is not leading the way, based on monthly trends and Yr/Yr it is still weak.
EMU sales Yr/Yr calculations benefit from a favorable year-ago comparisons since sales fell by 1.1% in March one year ago. The trends for retailing are not very compelling. And the background economics and politics do not do anything to give the numbers any greater authenticity. Since Germany is not leading the way up I am suspicious.
The UK alone is showing some continuing strength in real retail sales. But given the role of the 'gas shortage scare' in driving extra quarter-end purchases I'd be somewhat guarded in taking that trend as real.
On balance the Euro-Area shows very weak car registrations which get to the nub of how the consumer feels where the rubber meets the road. That big ticket series did rebound in March, but from a very deep pit, one in which it is still mired.
We may know a bit better what to say about Europe after the French elections are out of the way. But then again maybe we will not. Watershed events that we expect to clarify things often do not sweep away uncertainty as much we hope they will.
| Euro-Area Retail Sales | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M/M | SAAR | |||||
| Mar-12 | Feb-12 | Jan-12 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| Zone Total Volume | 0.3% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 4.5% | -2.6% | -1.9% |
| Registrations | ||||||
| Motor Vehicle Reg | 6.7% | -4.9% | -7.3% | -21.6% | -12.4% | -3.9% |
| NonFood Country detail: Volume | ||||||
| Germany Value | 0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -2.0% | 0.3% |
| UK(EU) Volume | 1.8% | -0.8% | 0.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Data in Shaded region are lagged by one month | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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