Global| Feb 25 2008Economists Forecast No U.S. Recession in 2008
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the National Association For Business Economists (NABE), the U.S. economy will skirt an economic downturn in 2008. During 1Q08 and 2Q08 growth on average is, however, expected to be the lowest since the end of the last [...]
According to the National Association For Business Economists (NABE), the U.S. economy will skirt an economic downturn in 2008. During 1Q08 and 2Q08 growth on average is, however, expected to be the lowest since the end of the last recession in 2001.
Helping the economy to avoid a recession will be further cuts in the Federal funds rate to a low of 2.5% next quarter. There it is expected to remain until yearend.
Yields on the 10 Year Treasury note are expected to bottom at 3.70% this quarter.
The late '08 recovery in quarterly economic growth is expected to be at a moderate, near trend rate of just under 3.0%. For the full year, growth this year 1.8% is forecast to be the weakest since 2001.
The NABE Outlook is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Improving Risk Management in Light of Recent Market Events is today's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner and it can be found here.
| NABE Forecast | 1Q 08 | 2Q 08 | 3Q 08 | 4Q 08 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Real GDP (%, AR) | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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